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Leganés II vs Tres Cantos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Leganés II
Leganés II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tres Cantos
Tres Cantos
1/3/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 16Instalación Deportiva Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Leganés II53%
×Draw25%
Tres Cantos22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leganés II
1.58
Tres Cantos
0.93

Leganés II creates 70% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 71 away

creates per match

Leganés II
1.41
Tres Cantos
1.03

allows per match

Leganés II
0.82
Tres Cantos
1.75

finishing

Leganés II+0.00on par
Tres Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganés II ↓

Tres Cantos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Leganés II or draw
78%
Leganés II or Tres Cantos
75%
Draw or Tres Cantos
47%

Winning margin

Leganés II wins by 2+
28%
Tres Cantos wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Leganés II 1+ goals
79%
Leganés II 2+ goals
47%
Leganés II 3+ goals
21%
Tres Cantos 1+ goals
61%
Tres Cantos 2+ goals
24%
Tres Cantos 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Leganés II (draw refunded)
70%
Tres Cantos (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leganés II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.82 · 78 matches

Tres Cantos away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.75 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leganés II attack 1.41 + Tres Cantos defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.58

Tres Cantos attack 1.03 + Leganés II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Leganés II scores more
53%
level
25%
Tres Cantos scores more
22%

Leganés II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leganés II vs Tres Cantos

Leganés II and Tres Cantos drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 3, 2026.

The match was played at Instalación Deportiva Butarque in Leganés.