Tres Cantos 1–0 Galapagar: Result & Stats

Tres Cantos

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Galapagar

Raúl León 90+7'

4/14/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 29Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Tres Cantos43%

×Draw27%

Galapagar30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tres CantosExpected goals in this matchGalapagar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.09

Tres Cantos

1.36

Galapagar

1.09

Tres Cantos creates 25% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 86 away

1.35

creates per match

0.99

1.20

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Tres Cantos

1.35

Galapagar

0.99

allows per match

Tres Cantos

1.20

Galapagar

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tres Cantos+0.00on par

Galapagar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tres Cantos ↓

Galapagar →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tres Cantos or draw

70%

Tres Cantos or Galapagar

73%

Draw or Galapagar

57%

Winning margin

Tres Cantos wins by 2+

20%

Galapagar wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tres Cantos 1+ goals

74%

Tres Cantos 2+ goals

39%

Tres Cantos 3+ goals

16%

Galapagar 1+ goals

66%

Galapagar 2+ goals

30%

Galapagar 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tres Cantos (draw refunded)

59%

Galapagar (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tres Cantos at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

Galapagar away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.37 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tres Cantos attack 1.35 + Galapagar defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.36

Galapagar attack 0.99 + Tres Cantos defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tres Cantos scores more

43%

level

27%

Galapagar scores more

30%

Tres Cantos at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tres Cantos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

A. Arkine← Capi

70'

Juan de la Torre← M. Gil

70'

Gonzaga← Manu Serrano

77'

Dani Martínez← José Antonio

77'

Fuster← Rubén Lozano

80'

Nacho← Javi Redondo

84'

Álvaro Pérez← Christian Martín

85'

Javier Collado← Andrés García

89'

Diego Carrillo← Jorge Greci

90+7'

Raúl León

Tres

Galapagar

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: David Muñoz

59'▲A. Arkine←▼Capi

77'▲Dani Martínez←▼José Antonio

77'▲Fuster←▼Rubén Lozano

84'▲Álvaro Pérez←▼Christian Martín

85'▲Javier Collado←▼Andrés García

Tres Cantos substitutes

ArkineMartínezFusterPérezCollado

Manager: Borja Bardera

70'▲Juan de la Torre←▼M. Gil

70'▲Gonzaga←▼Manu Serrano

80'▲Nacho←▼Javi Redondo

89'▲Diego Carrillo←▼Jorge Greci

Galapagar substitutes

TorreGonzagaNachoCarrillo

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Tres Cantos 1–0 Galapagar

Tres Cantos beat Galapagar 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 14, 2024.

Goals: Raúl León (90+7').

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A in Tres Cantos.

Tres Cantos vs Galapagar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Tres Cantos 1–0 Galapagar