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Tres Cantos vs Complutense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Tres Cantos
Tres Cantos
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Complutense
Complutense
3/13/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 33Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Tres Cantos50%
×Draw28%
Complutense22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tres Cantos
1.39
Complutense
0.83

Tres Cantos creates 67% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 36 away

creates per match

Tres Cantos
1.35
Complutense
0.47

allows per match

Tres Cantos
1.20
Complutense
1.42

finishing

Tres Cantos+0.00on par
Complutense+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tres Cantos ↓

Complutense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tres Cantos or draw
78%
Tres Cantos or Complutense
72%
Draw or Complutense
50%

Winning margin

Tres Cantos wins by 2+
24%
Complutense wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tres Cantos 1+ goals
75%
Tres Cantos 2+ goals
40%
Tres Cantos 3+ goals
16%
Complutense 1+ goals
56%
Complutense 2+ goals
20%
Complutense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tres Cantos (draw refunded)
69%
Complutense (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tres Cantos at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

Complutense away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tres Cantos attack 1.35 + Complutense defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.39

Complutense attack 0.47 + Tres Cantos defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tres Cantos scores more
50%
level
28%
Complutense scores more
22%

Tres Cantos at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tres Cantos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tres Cantos vs Complutense

Tres Cantos beat Complutense 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A in Tres Cantos.