Tres Cantos 2–0 Colonia Moscardó: Result & Stats

Tres Cantos

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Colonia Moscardó

4/14/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 39Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Tres Cantos50%

×Draw26%

Colonia Moscardó24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tres CantosExpected goals in this matchColonia Moscardó

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.95

Tres Cantos

1.52

Colonia Moscardó

0.95

Tres Cantos creates 60% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 37 away

1.35

creates per match

0.70

1.20

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Tres Cantos

1.35

Colonia Moscardó

0.70

allows per match

Tres Cantos

1.20

Colonia Moscardó

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tres Cantos+0.00on par

Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tres Cantos ↓

Colonia Moscardó →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tres Cantos or draw

76%

Tres Cantos or Colonia Moscardó

74%

Draw or Colonia Moscardó

50%

Winning margin

Tres Cantos wins by 2+

26%

Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+

Team goals

Tres Cantos 1+ goals

78%

Tres Cantos 2+ goals

45%

Tres Cantos 3+ goals

20%

Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals

61%

Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals

25%

Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Tres Cantos (draw refunded)

68%

Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tres Cantos at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

Colonia Moscardó away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tres Cantos attack 1.35 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.52

Colonia Moscardó attack 0.70 + Tres Cantos defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tres Cantos scores more

50%

level

26%

Colonia Moscardó scores more

24%

Tres Cantos at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tres Cantos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tres Cantos vs Colonia Moscardó

Tres Cantos beat Colonia Moscardó 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 14, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A in Tres Cantos.

Tres Cantos vs Colonia Moscardó — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tres Cantos vs Colonia Moscardó