Tres Cantos 2–4 Cala Pozuelo: Result & Stats

Tres Cantos

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 3

Cala Pozuelo

3/2/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 24Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tres Cantos44%

×Draw25%

Cala Pozuelo31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tres CantosExpected goals in this matchCala Pozuelo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.22

Tres Cantos

1.50

Cala Pozuelo

1.22

Tres Cantos creates 23% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 17 away

1.35

creates per match

1.24

1.20

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Tres Cantos

1.35

Cala Pozuelo

1.24

allows per match

Tres Cantos

1.20

Cala Pozuelo

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tres Cantos+0.00on par

Cala Pozuelo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tres Cantos ↓

Cala Pozuelo →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tres Cantos or draw

69%

Tres Cantos or Cala Pozuelo

75%

Draw or Cala Pozuelo

56%

Winning margin

Tres Cantos wins by 2+

21%

Cala Pozuelo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tres Cantos 1+ goals

78%

Tres Cantos 2+ goals

44%

Tres Cantos 3+ goals

19%

Cala Pozuelo 1+ goals

70%

Cala Pozuelo 2+ goals

34%

Cala Pozuelo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tres Cantos (draw refunded)

59%

Cala Pozuelo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tres Cantos at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

Cala Pozuelo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tres Cantos attack 1.35 + Cala Pozuelo defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cala Pozuelo attack 1.24 + Tres Cantos defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tres Cantos scores more

44%

level

25%

Cala Pozuelo scores more

31%

Tres Cantos at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tres Cantos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Tres Cantos 2–4 Cala Pozuelo

Cala Pozuelo beat Tres Cantos 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A in Tres Cantos.

Tres Cantos vs Cala Pozuelo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Tres Cantos 2–4 Cala Pozuelo