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Tres Cantos vs Aravaca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Tres Cantos
Tres Cantos
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aravaca
Aravaca
9/8/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 1Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tres Cantos48%
×Draw27%
Aravaca26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tres Cantos
1.44
Aravaca
0.98

Tres Cantos creates 47% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tres Cantos
1.35
Aravaca
0.76

allows per match

Tres Cantos
1.20
Aravaca
1.53

finishing

Tres Cantos+0.00on par
Aravaca+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tres Cantos ↓

Aravaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tres Cantos or draw
74%
Tres Cantos or Aravaca
73%
Draw or Aravaca
52%

Winning margin

Tres Cantos wins by 2+
23%
Aravaca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tres Cantos 1+ goals
76%
Tres Cantos 2+ goals
42%
Tres Cantos 3+ goals
18%
Aravaca 1+ goals
62%
Aravaca 2+ goals
26%
Aravaca 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tres Cantos (draw refunded)
65%
Aravaca (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tres Cantos at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

Aravaca away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tres Cantos attack 1.35 + Aravaca defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Aravaca attack 0.76 + Tres Cantos defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tres Cantos scores more
48%
level
27%
Aravaca scores more
26%

Tres Cantos at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tres Cantos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Tres Cantos 0–0 Aravaca

Tres Cantos and Aravaca drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Foresta A in Tres Cantos.