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Trepça'89 vs Llapi — Cup 2019

Trepça'89
Trepça'89advanced
AET
4 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Llapi
Llapi
2/4/2024CupCup · Round of 16Stadiumi Riza Lushta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Trepça'8925%
×Draw21%
Llapi53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trepça'89
1.36
Llapi
2.06

Llapi creates 51% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

creates per match

Trepça'89
1.80
Llapi
1.93

allows per match

Trepça'89
2.20
Llapi
0.93

finishing

Trepça'89+0.00on par
Llapi+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trepça'89 ↓

Llapi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Trepça'89 or draw
47%
Trepça'89 or Llapi
79%
Draw or Llapi
75%

Winning margin

Trepça'89 wins by 2+
11%
Llapi wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Trepça'89 1+ goals
74%
Trepça'89 2+ goals
39%
Trepça'89 3+ goals
16%
Llapi 1+ goals
87%
Llapi 2+ goals
61%
Llapi 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Trepça'89 (draw refunded)
32%
Llapi (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trepça'89 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Llapi away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trepça'89 attack 1.80 + Llapi defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.36

Llapi attack 1.93 + Trepça'89 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Trepça'89 scores more
25%
level
21%
Llapi scores more
53%

Llapi at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Llapi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trepça'89 vs Llapi

Trepça'89 beat Llapi 4-3 in Cup on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Riza Lushta in Kosovska Mitrovica.