Trenčín W 6–2 Nové Zámky W: Result & Stats

Trenčín W

FT

6 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Nové Zámky W

S. Pruzinska 88', 60' (pen), 50'

S. Strakova 66', 55'

D. Sojkova 30'

V. Sopociova 71'

K. Cerovska 40'

3/25/2023

I Liga - Women · Relegation Round - 1Mestský futbalový štadión Na Sihoti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Trenčín W69%

×Draw15%

Nové Zámky W16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trenčín WExpected goals in this matchNové Zámky W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.21

1.55

Trenčín W

3.21

Nové Zámky W

1.55

Trenčín W creates 107% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 26 away

1.93

creates per match

0.73

2.37

allows per match

4.50

creates per match

Trenčín W

1.93

Nové Zámky W

0.73

allows per match

Trenčín W

2.37

Nové Zámky W

4.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trenčín W+0.00on par

Nové Zámky W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trenčín W ↓

Nové Zámky W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Trenčín W or draw

84%

Trenčín W or Nové Zámky W

85%

Draw or Nové Zámky W

31%

Winning margin

Trenčín W wins by 2+

50%

Nové Zámky W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Trenčín W 1+ goals

96%

Trenčín W 2+ goals

82%

Trenčín W 3+ goals

60%

Nové Zámky W 1+ goals

79%

Nové Zámky W 2+ goals

46%

Nové Zámky W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Trenčín W (draw refunded)

81%

Nové Zámky W (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trenčín W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 2.37 · 67 matches

Nové Zámky W away — creates 0.73, concedes 4.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trenčín W attack 1.93 + Nové Zámky W defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.21

Nové Zámky W attack 0.73 + Trenčín W defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Trenčín W scores more

69%

level

15%

Nové Zámky W scores more

16%

Trenčín W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Trenčín W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

D. Sojkova

40'

K. Cerovska

50'

S. Pruzinska

55'

S. Strakova

60'

S. PruzinskaPenalty

66'

S. Strakova

71'

V. Sopociova

88'

S. Pruzinska

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff