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Trenčín W vs Nitra W — I Liga - Women 2020

Trenčín W
Trenčín W
CANC
09:00
Nitra W
Nitra W
4/17/2021I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 12Mestský futbalový štadión Na Sihoti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Trenčín W48%
×Draw19%
Nitra W33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trenčín W
2.53
Nitra W
2.08

Trenčín W creates 22% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 15 away

creates per match

Trenčín W
1.93
Nitra W
1.80

allows per match

Trenčín W
2.37
Nitra W
3.13

finishing

Trenčín W+0.00on par
Nitra W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trenčín W ↓

Nitra W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Trenčín W or draw
67%
Trenčín W or Nitra W
81%
Draw or Nitra W
52%

Winning margin

Trenčín W wins by 2+
29%
Nitra W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Trenčín W 1+ goals
92%
Trenčín W 2+ goals
71%
Trenčín W 3+ goals
46%
Nitra W 1+ goals
87%
Nitra W 2+ goals
61%
Nitra W 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Trenčín W (draw refunded)
60%
Nitra W (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trenčín W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 2.37 · 67 matches

Nitra W away — creates 1.80, concedes 3.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trenčín W attack 1.93 + Nitra W defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.53

Nitra W attack 1.80 + Trenčín W defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Trenčín W scores more
48%
level
19%
Nitra W scores more
33%

Trenčín W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Trenčín W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Trenčín W host Nitra W

April 17, 2021: Trenčín W take on Nitra W in I Liga - Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Trenčín W host Nitra W at Mestský futbalový štadión Na Sihoti.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.