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Trenčín W vs Dukla Banská Bystrica W — I Liga - Women 2020

Trenčín W
Trenčín W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
5/17/2025I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Relegation Round - 8Areál This Is my sen-akademy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Trenčín W60%
×Draw17%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trenčín W
2.91
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
1.79

Trenčín W creates 63% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 55 away

creates per match

Trenčín W
1.93
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
1.22

allows per match

Trenčín W
2.37
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
3.89

finishing

Trenčín W+0.00on par
Dukla Banská Bystrica W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trenčín W ↓

Dukla Banská Bystrica W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Trenčín W or draw
77%
Trenčín W or Dukla Banská Bystrica W
83%
Draw or Dukla Banská Bystrica W
40%

Winning margin

Trenčín W wins by 2+
40%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Trenčín W 1+ goals
94%
Trenčín W 2+ goals
78%
Trenčín W 3+ goals
54%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 1+ goals
83%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 2+ goals
53%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Trenčín W (draw refunded)
73%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trenčín W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 2.37 · 67 matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica W away — creates 1.22, concedes 3.89 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trenčín W attack 1.93 + Dukla Banská Bystrica W defence 3.89 → ÷2 → 2.91

Dukla Banská Bystrica W attack 1.22 + Trenčín W defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Trenčín W scores more
60%
level
17%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W scores more
23%

Trenčín W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Trenčín W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga - Women: Trenčín W 4–0 Dukla Banská Bystrica W

Trenčín W beat Dukla Banská Bystrica W 4-0 in I Liga - Women on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Areál This Is my sen-akademy in Trenčín.