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Trem vs Tuna Luso — Serie D 2026

Trem
Trem
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Tuna Luso
Tuna Luso
M. dos Santos Ribeiro 83'
Aleilson 57'
J. Moreira 9'
Franklin Douglas 90'
Daniel GTA 76'
J. Alves 64'
4/12/2026Serie DSerie D · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Trem49%
×Draw24%
Tuna Luso27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trem
1.67
Tuna Luso
1.19

Trem creates 40% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 29 away

creates per match

Trem
1.72
Tuna Luso
1.00

allows per match

Trem
1.39
Tuna Luso
1.62

finishing

Trem+0.00on par
Tuna Luso+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trem ↓

Tuna Luso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Trem or draw
73%
Trem or Tuna Luso
76%
Draw or Tuna Luso
51%

Winning margin

Trem wins by 2+
26%
Tuna Luso wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Trem 1+ goals
81%
Trem 2+ goals
50%
Trem 3+ goals
23%
Tuna Luso 1+ goals
70%
Tuna Luso 2+ goals
33%
Tuna Luso 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Trem (draw refunded)
64%
Tuna Luso (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trem at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

Tuna Luso away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trem attack 1.72 + Tuna Luso defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.67

Tuna Luso attack 1.00 + Trem defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Trem scores more
49%
level
24%
Tuna Luso scores more
27%

Trem at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Trem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
J. Moreira
57'
Aleilson
64'
J. Alves
76'
Daniel GTA
83'
M. dos Santos Ribeiro
90'
Franklin Douglas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Trem 3–3 Tuna Luso

Trem and Tuna Luso drew 3-3 in Serie D on April 12, 2026.

Goals: J. Moreira (9'), Aleilson (57'), J. Alves (64'), Daniel GTA (76'), M. dos Santos Ribeiro (83'), Franklin Douglas (90').