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Trem vs GAS — Copa Norte 2026

Trem
Trem
FT
5 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
GAS
GAS
M. dos Santos Ribeiro 90'
Welliton 77'
Aleilson 49'
J. Moreira 44'
Neto 38'
Eric Bahia 78', 72', 10'
Iarley 68'
3/30/2026Copa NorteCopa Norte · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Trem56%
×Draw17%
GAS27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trem
3.33
GAS
2.33

Trem creates 43% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Trem
3.00
GAS
2.33

allows per match

Trem
2.33
GAS
3.67

finishing

Trem+0.00on par
GAS+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trem ↓

GAS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–23%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
80%20%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

Trem or draw
73%
Trem or GAS
83%
Draw or GAS
44%

Winning margin

Trem wins by 2+
38%
GAS wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Trem 1+ goals
96%
Trem 2+ goals
84%
Trem 3+ goals
63%
GAS 1+ goals
90%
GAS 2+ goals
67%
GAS 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Trem (draw refunded)
68%
GAS (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
84%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trem at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

GAS away — creates 2.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trem attack 3.00 + GAS defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.33

GAS attack 2.33 + Trem defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Trem scores more
56%
level
17%
GAS scores more
27%

Trem at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Trem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
Eric Bahia
38'
Neto
44'
J. Moreira
49'
Aleilson
68'
Iarley
72'
Eric Bahia
77'
Welliton
78'
Eric Bahia
90'
M. dos Santos Ribeiro
Trem
GAS
Sandro Macapá
Manager: Sandro Macapá
Chiquinho Viana
Manager: Chiquinho Viana

Match Recap: Trem vs GAS

Trem beat GAS 5-4 in Copa Norte on March 30, 2026.

Goals: Eric Bahia (10', 72', 78'), Neto (38'), J. Moreira (44'), Aleilson (49'), Iarley (68'), Welliton (77'), M. dos Santos Ribeiro (90').