Trelleborg W 2–3 KIF Örebro W: Result & Stats

Trelleborg W

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

KIF Örebro W

L. Prambrant 35'

E. Persson Welin 5'

M. Bodin 89', 6'

M. Henschler 51'

10/12/2024

Damallsvenskan · Round 23Vångavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Trelleborg W20%

×Draw20%

KIF Örebro W61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trelleborg WExpected goals in this matchKIF Örebro W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

2.26

Trelleborg W

1.21

KIF Örebro W

2.26

KIF Örebro W creates 87% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 62 away

0.54

creates per match

0.90

3.62

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Trelleborg W

0.54

KIF Örebro W

0.90

allows per match

Trelleborg W

3.62

KIF Örebro W

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trelleborg W+0.00on par

KIF Örebro W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg W ↓

KIF Örebro W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Trelleborg W or draw

39%

Trelleborg W or KIF Örebro W

80%

Draw or KIF Örebro W

80%

Winning margin

Trelleborg W wins by 2+

8%

KIF Örebro W wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Trelleborg W 1+ goals

70%

Trelleborg W 2+ goals

34%

Trelleborg W 3+ goals

12%

KIF Örebro W 1+ goals

89%

KIF Örebro W 2+ goals

66%

KIF Örebro W 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg W (draw refunded)

24%

KIF Örebro W (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg W at home — creates 0.54, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

KIF Örebro W away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.89 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg W attack 0.54 + KIF Örebro W defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.21

KIF Örebro W attack 0.90 + Trelleborg W defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Trelleborg W scores more

20%

level

20%

KIF Örebro W scores more

61%

KIF Örebro W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "KIF Örebro W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88

M. Bodin

KIF Örebro W · F

8.7

Match Events

5'

6'

31'

35'

46'

V. Ollonqvist← I. Björnberg

49'

Nora Håheim

51'

M. Henschler

69'

I. Garmfors← V. Persson

70'

A. Altheden← N. Håheim

77'

A. Olsson← S. Rewucha

77'

O. Strid← T. Birgerud

77'

L. Sternfeldt← H. Persson

81'

R. Strand← L. Prambrant

89'

M. Bodin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TrelleborgKIF

Overview

62%Possession38%

21Total Shots8

2.15Expected Goals (xG)0.76

9Corners0

8Fouls4

Shots

21Total Shots8

4On Target3

7Off Target3

9Blocked2

12Inside Box4

9Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

573Total Passes314

473Accurate Passes219

83%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls4

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0