Trelleborg W 0–8 Hammarby W: Result & Stats

Trelleborg W

FT

0 – 8

HT: 0 – 5

Hammarby W

V. Hasund 82'

E. Westin 67'

E. Wangerheim 57', 26'

J. Blakstad 42', 11'

C. Tandberg 36'

J. Andersson 29'

8/26/2024

Damallsvenskan · Round 16Vångavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Trelleborg W7%

×Draw13%

Hammarby W80%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trelleborg WExpected goals in this matchHammarby W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.75

2.85

Trelleborg W

0.75

Hammarby W

2.85

Hammarby W creates 280% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 69 away

0.54

creates per match

2.09

3.62

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Trelleborg W

0.54

Hammarby W

2.09

allows per match

Trelleborg W

3.62

Hammarby W

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trelleborg W+0.00on par

Hammarby W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg W ↓

Hammarby W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–211%

0–311%

0–48%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Trelleborg W or draw

20%

Trelleborg W or Hammarby W

87%

Draw or Hammarby W

93%

Winning margin

Trelleborg W wins by 2+

2%

Hammarby W wins by 2+

60%

Team goals

Trelleborg W 1+ goals

53%

Trelleborg W 2+ goals

17%

Trelleborg W 3+ goals

4%

Hammarby W 1+ goals

94%

Hammarby W 2+ goals

77%

Hammarby W 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg W (draw refunded)

8%

Hammarby W (draw refunded)

92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg W at home — creates 0.54, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

Hammarby W away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.96 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg W attack 0.54 + Hammarby W defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.75

Hammarby W attack 2.09 + Trelleborg W defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 2.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Trelleborg W scores more

7%

level

13%

Hammarby W scores more

80%

Hammarby W at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Hammarby W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

26'

29'

36'

42'

46'

I. Garmfors← T. Birgerud

57'

V. Hasund← S. Vallotto

57'

S. Holmberg← S. Lennartsson

57'

E. Wangerheim

58'

H. Persson← S. Rewucha

58'

L. Sternfeldt← M. Karlsson

66'

B. Andersson← A. Carlsson

66'

E. Westin← A. Miyagawa

67'

E. Westin

68'

A. Olsson← I. Jonsson

72'

A. Jøsendal← J. Andersson

77'

R. Strand← T. Persson Welin

82'

V. Hasund

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TrelleborgHammarby

Overview

28%Possession72%

1Total Shots37

0.03Expected Goals (xG)5.62

2Corners9

12Fouls16

Shots

1Total Shots37

0On Target18

0Off Target12

1Blocked5

1Inside Box29

0Outside Box8

Passing

28%Possession72%

262Total Passes592

155Accurate Passes491

59%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

10Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls16

0Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

3Offsides0