Trelleborg W 3–0 Eskilstuna United W

Trelleborg W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Eskilstuna United W

H. Ekengren 69'

E. Lenir 60'

A. Egnér 16'

4/15/2023

Elitettan · Round 2Vångavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Trelleborg W55%

×Draw21%

Eskilstuna United W24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trelleborg WExpected goals in this matchEskilstuna United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.31

Trelleborg W

2.06

Eskilstuna United W

1.31

Trelleborg W creates 57% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 39 away

2.35

creates per match

1.82

0.81

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Trelleborg W

2.35

Eskilstuna United W

1.82

allows per match

Trelleborg W

0.81

Eskilstuna United W

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trelleborg W+0.00on par

Eskilstuna United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg W ↓

Eskilstuna United W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Trelleborg W or draw

76%

Trelleborg W or Eskilstuna United W

79%

Draw or Eskilstuna United W

45%

Winning margin

Trelleborg W wins by 2+

32%

Eskilstuna United W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Trelleborg W 1+ goals

87%

Trelleborg W 2+ goals

61%

Trelleborg W 3+ goals

34%

Eskilstuna United W 1+ goals

73%

Eskilstuna United W 2+ goals

38%

Eskilstuna United W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg W (draw refunded)

69%

Eskilstuna United W (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg W at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.81 · 31 matches

Eskilstuna United W away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.77 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg W attack 2.35 + Eskilstuna United W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.06

Eskilstuna United W attack 1.82 + Trelleborg W defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Trelleborg W scores more

55%

level

21%

Eskilstuna United W scores more

24%

Trelleborg W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Trelleborg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

A. Egnér

22'

H. Persson

29'

M. Alvin← L. Duras

52'

P. McAllister← M. Jävergren

60'

E. Lenir

65'

J. Lindblom← T. Olsson

69'

H. Ekengren

76'

P. McAllister

78'

E. Degerstedt← H. Persson

78'

J. Lilliehöök← H. Ekengren

78'

R. Strand← A. Egnér

79'

E. Johansson← A. Karlsson

89'

M. Andersson← E. Lenir

Trelleborg

Eskilstuna

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Lenir

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Ekengren

Manager: J. Felldin

65'▲J. Lindblom←▼T. Olsson

78'▲E. Degerstedt←▼H. Persson

78'▲J. Lilliehöök←▼H. Ekengren

78'▲R. Strand←▼A. Egnér

89'▲M. Andersson←▼E. Lenir

Trelleborg W substitutes

LindblomDegerstedtLilliehöökStrandAnderssonNilssonNykjaer

Manager: V. Barsley

29'▲M. Alvin←▼L. Duras

52'▲P. McAllister←▼M. Jävergren

79'▲E. Johansson←▼A. Karlsson

Eskilstuna United W substitutes

AlvinMcAllisterJohanssonDelerudKarlsson

Match Recap: Trelleborg W vs Eskilstuna United W

Trelleborg W beat Eskilstuna United W 3-0 in Elitettan on April 15, 2023.

Goals: A. Egnér (16'), E. Lenir (60'), H. Ekengren (69').

The match was played at Vångavallen in Trelleborg.

Trelleborg W vs Eskilstuna United W — Elitettan 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Trelleborg W vs Eskilstuna United W