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Trelleborg vs Umeå FC — Superettan 2018

Trelleborg
Trelleborg
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Umeå FC
Umeå FC
8/10/2025SuperettanSuperettan · Round 18Vångavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Trelleborg49%
×Draw25%
Umeå FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trelleborg
1.62
Umeå FC
1.11

Trelleborg creates 46% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 30 away

creates per match

Trelleborg
1.31
Umeå FC
0.97

allows per match

Trelleborg
1.26
Umeå FC
1.93

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par
Umeå FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

Umeå FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw
74%
Trelleborg or Umeå FC
75%
Draw or Umeå FC
51%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+
26%
Umeå FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals
80%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
48%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
22%
Umeå FC 1+ goals
67%
Umeå FC 2+ goals
30%
Umeå FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)
65%
Umeå FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 108 matches

Umeå FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 1.31 + Umeå FC defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.62

Umeå FC attack 0.97 + Trelleborg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Trelleborg scores more
49%
level
25%
Umeå FC scores more
26%

Trelleborg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trelleborg vs Umeå FC

Umeå FC beat Trelleborg 2-0 in Superettan on August 10, 2025.

The match was played at Vångavallen in Trelleborg.