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Trelleborg vs Syrianska FC — Superettan 2018

Trelleborg
Trelleborg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Syrianska FC
Syrianska FC
7/13/2019SuperettanSuperettan · Round 15Vångavallen (Trelleborg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Trelleborg51%
×Draw24%
Syrianska FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trelleborg
1.66
Syrianska FC
1.06

Trelleborg creates 57% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 15 away

creates per match

Trelleborg
1.31
Syrianska FC
0.87

allows per match

Trelleborg
1.26
Syrianska FC
2.00

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par
Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

Syrianska FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw
76%
Trelleborg or Syrianska FC
76%
Draw or Syrianska FC
49%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+
27%
Syrianska FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals
81%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
49%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
23%
Syrianska FC 1+ goals
65%
Syrianska FC 2+ goals
29%
Syrianska FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)
68%
Syrianska FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 108 matches

Syrianska FC away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 1.31 + Syrianska FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

Syrianska FC attack 0.87 + Trelleborg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Trelleborg scores more
51%
level
24%
Syrianska FC scores more
24%

Trelleborg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Trelleborg 1–2 Syrianska FC

Syrianska FC beat Trelleborg 2-1 in Superettan on July 13, 2019.

The match was played at Vångavallen (Trelleborg).