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Trelleborg vs Skövde AIK — Superettan 2018

Trelleborg
Trelleborg
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK
H. Offia 89'
H. Brkic 29'
G. Broman 90+4'
A. Yusuf 90+1'
11/5/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Round 29Vångavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Trelleborg48%
×Draw24%
Skövde AIK27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trelleborg
1.66
Skövde AIK
1.19

Trelleborg creates 39% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 47 away

creates per match

Trelleborg
1.31
Skövde AIK
1.11

allows per match

Trelleborg
1.26
Skövde AIK
2.00

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par
Skövde AIK+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

Skövde AIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw
73%
Trelleborg or Skövde AIK
76%
Draw or Skövde AIK
52%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+
25%
Skövde AIK wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals
81%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
49%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
23%
Skövde AIK 1+ goals
70%
Skövde AIK 2+ goals
33%
Skövde AIK 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)
64%
Skövde AIK (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 108 matches

Skövde AIK away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.00 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 1.31 + Skövde AIK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

Skövde AIK attack 1.11 + Trelleborg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Trelleborg scores more
48%
level
24%
Skövde AIK scores more
27%

Trelleborg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
Haris Brkic
29'
H. Brkic
33'
Elias Lindell
35'
Emmanuel Godwin
44'
Darrell Kamdem Tibell
66'
I. Vidjeskog← D. Tibell
71'
Gustav Broman
71'
A. Suljev← L. Rhöse
73'
B. Böðvarsson← E. Godwin
81'
H. Offia← Z. Hyltoft
88'
Böðvar Böðvarsson
89'
H. Offia
90'
M. Andersson← K. Wendt
90'
J. Dickman← P. Larsen
90+1'
A. Yusuf
90+4'
G. Broman

Shots

12Trelleborg

Statistics

TrelleborgSkövde
Overview
12Total Shots5
2Corners6
13Fouls20
Shots
12Total Shots5
5On Target3
5Off Target1
2Blocked1
Discipline
13Fouls20
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
1Offsides4

Superettan: Trelleborg 2–2 Skövde AIK

Trelleborg and Skövde AIK drew 2-2 in Superettan on November 5, 2023.

Goals: H. Brkic (29'), H. Offia (89'), A. Yusuf (90+1'), G. Broman (90+4').

The match was played at Vångavallen in Trelleborg.