Trelleborg 1–2 Sandviken: Result & Stats

Trelleborg

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sandviken

9/14/2025

Superettan · Round 22Vångavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Trelleborg45%

×Draw25%

Sandviken30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrelleborgExpected goals in this matchSandviken

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.21

Trelleborg

1.54

Sandviken

1.21

Trelleborg creates 27% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 37 away

1.31

creates per match

1.16

1.26

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Trelleborg

1.31

Sandviken

1.16

allows per match

Trelleborg

1.26

Sandviken

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par

Sandviken+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

Sandviken →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw

70%

Trelleborg or Sandviken

75%

Draw or Sandviken

55%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+

23%

Sandviken wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals

79%

Trelleborg 2+ goals

45%

Trelleborg 3+ goals

20%

Sandviken 1+ goals

70%

Sandviken 2+ goals

34%

Sandviken 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)

60%

Sandviken (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 108 matches

Sandviken away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.76 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 1.31 + Sandviken defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sandviken attack 1.16 + Trelleborg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Trelleborg scores more

45%

level

25%

Sandviken scores more

30%

Trelleborg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff