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Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK — Superettan 2018

Trelleborg
Trelleborg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
5/15/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Round 7Vångavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Trelleborg45%
×Draw27%
Ostersunds FK29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trelleborg
1.41
Ostersunds FK
1.07

Trelleborg creates 32% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 70 away

creates per match

Trelleborg
1.31
Ostersunds FK
0.89

allows per match

Trelleborg
1.26
Ostersunds FK
1.51

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par
Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

Ostersunds FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw
71%
Trelleborg or Ostersunds FK
73%
Draw or Ostersunds FK
55%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+
21%
Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals
76%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
41%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
17%
Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
66%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
29%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)
61%
Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 108 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.51 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 1.31 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.41

Ostersunds FK attack 0.89 + Trelleborg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Trelleborg scores more
45%
level
27%
Ostersunds FK scores more
29%

Trelleborg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trelleborg vs Ostersunds FK

Trelleborg beat Ostersunds FK 1-0 in Superettan on May 15, 2023.

The match was played at Vångavallen in Trelleborg.