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Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg — Superettan 2018

Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Trelleborg
Trelleborg
11/1/2025SuperettanSuperettan · Round 29Jamtkraft Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Ostersunds FK46%
×Draw24%
Trelleborg29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostersunds FK
1.65
Trelleborg
1.26

Ostersunds FK creates 31% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 110 away

creates per match

Ostersunds FK
1.57
Trelleborg
1.15

allows per match

Ostersunds FK
1.38
Trelleborg
1.72

finishing

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par
Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostersunds FK ↓

Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ostersunds FK or draw
71%
Ostersunds FK or Trelleborg
76%
Draw or Trelleborg
54%

Winning margin

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+
24%
Trelleborg wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals
81%
Ostersunds FK 2+ goals
49%
Ostersunds FK 3+ goals
23%
Trelleborg 1+ goals
72%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
36%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)
61%
Trelleborg (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostersunds FK at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.38 · 68 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.72 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostersunds FK attack 1.57 + Trelleborg defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.65

Trelleborg attack 1.15 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ostersunds FK scores more
46%
level
24%
Trelleborg scores more
29%

Ostersunds FK at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ostersunds FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg

Ostersunds FK beat Trelleborg 2-0 in Superettan on November 1, 2025.

The match was played at Jamtkraft Arena in Ostersund.