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Trelleborg vs IFK Varnamo — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Trelleborg
Trelleborg
FT
2 – 0
IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
3/19/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Vångavallen, D-plan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Trelleborg47%
×Draw29%
IFK Varnamo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trelleborg
1.25
IFK Varnamo
0.81

Trelleborg creates 54% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Trelleborg
1.13
IFK Varnamo
0.75

allows per match

Trelleborg
0.88
IFK Varnamo
1.38

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par
IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

IFK Varnamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw
76%
Trelleborg or IFK Varnamo
71%
Draw or IFK Varnamo
53%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+
21%
IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals
71%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
36%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
13%
IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
56%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
19%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)
66%
IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 1.13 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

IFK Varnamo attack 0.75 + Trelleborg defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Trelleborg scores more
47%
level
29%
IFK Varnamo scores more
24%

Trelleborg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Trelleborg 2–0 IFK Varnamo

Trelleborg beat IFK Varnamo 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Vångavallen, D-plan in Trelleborg.