Trelleborg 2–3 IFK Varnamo: Result & Stats

Trelleborg

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

IFK Varnamo

9/26/2021

Superettan · Round 22Vångavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Trelleborg47%

×Draw25%

IFK Varnamo28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrelleborgExpected goals in this matchIFK Varnamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.16

Trelleborg

1.56

IFK Varnamo

1.16

Trelleborg creates 34% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 39 away

1.31

creates per match

1.05

1.26

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Trelleborg

1.31

IFK Varnamo

1.05

allows per match

Trelleborg

1.26

IFK Varnamo

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

IFK Varnamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw

72%

Trelleborg or IFK Varnamo

75%

Draw or IFK Varnamo

53%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+

24%

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals

79%

Trelleborg 2+ goals

46%

Trelleborg 3+ goals

21%

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

69%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

32%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)

62%

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 108 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.82 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 1.31 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.56

IFK Varnamo attack 1.05 + Trelleborg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Trelleborg scores more

47%

level

25%

IFK Varnamo scores more

28%

Trelleborg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff