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Trelleborg vs Eskilsminne — Ettan - Södra 2019

Trelleborg
Trelleborg
Preview
11:00
Eskilsminne
Eskilsminne
8/16/2026Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 17
57%
Trelleborg
model favours
57%21%21%

78% of Eskilsminne’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Trelleborg57%
×Draw21%
Eskilsminne21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trelleborg
2.04
Eskilsminne
1.17

Trelleborg creates 74% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 82 away

creates per match

Trelleborg
2.43
Eskilsminne
1.20

allows per match

Trelleborg
1.14
Eskilsminne
1.65

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par
Eskilsminne+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

Eskilsminne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw
79%
Trelleborg or Eskilsminne
79%
Draw or Eskilsminne
43%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+
34%
Eskilsminne wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals
87%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
60%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
33%
Eskilsminne 1+ goals
69%
Eskilsminne 2+ goals
33%
Eskilsminne 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)
73%
Eskilsminne (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Eskilsminne away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.65 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 2.43 + Eskilsminne defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.04

Eskilsminne attack 1.20 + Trelleborg defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Trelleborg scores more
57%
level
21%
Eskilsminne scores more
21%

Trelleborg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Trelleborg score first in only 27% of matches
  • Eskilsminne raise their game against the top half — 40% wins vs the upper half, only 39% vs the lower
  • 44% of Eskilsminne’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Trelleborg
DWWLW
Eskilsminne
WLWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Trelleborg vs Eskilsminne — Match Preview

Trelleborg face Eskilsminne on August 16, 2026 in this Ettan - Södra fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.