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Trelleborg vs Eskilsminne — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Trelleborg
Trelleborg
FT
1 – 1
Eskilsminne
Eskilsminne
3/28/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Trelleborg50%
×Draw22%
Eskilsminne28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trelleborg
1.96
Eskilsminne
1.44

Trelleborg creates 36% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Trelleborg
1.13
Eskilsminne
2.00

allows per match

Trelleborg
0.88
Eskilsminne
2.80

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par
Eskilsminne+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

Eskilsminne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw
72%
Trelleborg or Eskilsminne
78%
Draw or Eskilsminne
50%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+
28%
Eskilsminne wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals
86%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
58%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
31%
Eskilsminne 1+ goals
76%
Eskilsminne 2+ goals
42%
Eskilsminne 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)
64%
Eskilsminne (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Eskilsminne away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 1.13 + Eskilsminne defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 1.96

Eskilsminne attack 2.00 + Trelleborg defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Trelleborg scores more
50%
level
22%
Eskilsminne scores more
28%

Trelleborg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Trelleborg
Eskilsminne
Kristian Haynes
Manager: Kristian Haynes
Kristian Haynes
Manager: Kristian Haynes

Match Recap: Trelleborg vs Eskilsminne

Trelleborg and Eskilsminne drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on March 28, 2026.