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Trelleborg vs Degerfors IF — Superettan 2018

Trelleborg
Trelleborg
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
6/8/2019SuperettanSuperettan · Round 12Vångavallen (Trelleborg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Trelleborg33%
×Draw26%
Degerfors IF40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trelleborg
1.22
Degerfors IF
1.37

Degerfors IF creates 12% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 60 away

creates per match

Trelleborg
1.31
Degerfors IF
1.48

allows per match

Trelleborg
1.26
Degerfors IF
1.13

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par
Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

Degerfors IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw
60%
Trelleborg or Degerfors IF
74%
Draw or Degerfors IF
67%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+
14%
Degerfors IF wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals
70%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
34%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
12%
Degerfors IF 1+ goals
75%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
40%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)
45%
Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 108 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.13 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 1.31 + Degerfors IF defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.22

Degerfors IF attack 1.48 + Trelleborg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Trelleborg scores more
33%
level
26%
Degerfors IF scores more
40%

Degerfors IF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Trelleborg 0–0 Degerfors IF

Trelleborg and Degerfors IF drew 0-0 in Superettan on June 8, 2019.

The match was played at Vångavallen (Trelleborg).