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Degerfors IF vs Trelleborg — Svenska Cupen 2019

Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Trelleborg
Trelleborg
2/28/2025Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3Stora Valla B-plan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Degerfors IF54%
×Draw23%
Trelleborg23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Degerfors IF
1.84
Trelleborg
1.12

Degerfors IF creates 64% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

creates per match

Degerfors IF
2.25
Trelleborg
1.61

allows per match

Degerfors IF
0.63
Trelleborg
1.44

finishing

Degerfors IF+0.00on par
Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw
77%
Degerfors IF or Trelleborg
77%
Draw or Trelleborg
46%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+
31%
Trelleborg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals
84%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
55%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
28%
Trelleborg 1+ goals
67%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
31%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
70%
Trelleborg (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 2.25 + Trelleborg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.84

Trelleborg attack 1.61 + Degerfors IF defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Degerfors IF scores more
54%
level
23%
Trelleborg scores more
23%

Degerfors IF at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Degerfors IF 0–1 Trelleborg

Trelleborg beat Degerfors IF 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 28, 2025.

The match was played at Stora Valla B-plan in Degerfors.