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Trelleborg vs BK Hacken — Allsvenskan 2018

Trelleborg
Trelleborg
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
BK Hacken
BK Hacken
5/6/2018AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 7Vångavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Trelleborg23%
×Draw23%
BK Hacken54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trelleborg
1.08
BK Hacken
1.79

BK Hacken creates 66% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 126 away

creates per match

Trelleborg
0.80
BK Hacken
1.39

allows per match

Trelleborg
2.20
BK Hacken
1.35

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par
BK Hacken+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

BK Hacken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw
46%
Trelleborg or BK Hacken
77%
Draw or BK Hacken
77%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+
9%
BK Hacken wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals
66%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
29%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
10%
BK Hacken 1+ goals
83%
BK Hacken 2+ goals
53%
BK Hacken 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)
30%
BK Hacken (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

BK Hacken away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.35 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 0.80 + BK Hacken defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.08

BK Hacken attack 1.39 + Trelleborg defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Trelleborg scores more
23%
level
23%
BK Hacken scores more
54%

BK Hacken at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "BK Hacken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Trelleborg 0–3 BK Hacken

BK Hacken beat Trelleborg 3-0 in Allsvenskan on May 6, 2018.

The match was played at Vångavallen in Trelleborg.