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Trelleborg vs Atvidabergs FF — Ettan - Södra 2019

Trelleborg
Trelleborg
Preview
12:00
Atvidabergs FF
Atvidabergs FF
10/25/2026Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 28
Big match
59%
Trelleborg
model favours
59%21%20%

Trelleborg score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Trelleborg59%
×Draw21%
Atvidabergs FF20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trelleborg
2.13
Atvidabergs FF
1.17

Trelleborg creates 82% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 66 away

creates per match

Trelleborg
2.43
Atvidabergs FF
1.21

allows per match

Trelleborg
1.14
Atvidabergs FF
1.83

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par
Atvidabergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

Atvidabergs FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw
80%
Trelleborg or Atvidabergs FF
79%
Draw or Atvidabergs FF
41%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+
36%
Atvidabergs FF wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals
88%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
63%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
35%
Atvidabergs FF 1+ goals
69%
Atvidabergs FF 2+ goals
33%
Atvidabergs FF 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)
74%
Atvidabergs FF (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Atvidabergs FF away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.83 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 2.43 + Atvidabergs FF defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.13

Atvidabergs FF attack 1.21 + Trelleborg defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Trelleborg scores more
59%
level
21%
Atvidabergs FF scores more
20%

Trelleborg at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Top-of-the-table clash — Trelleborg 1 vs Atvidabergs FF 3
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Trelleborg
DWWLW
FF
DWWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Trelleborg face Atvidabergs FF (Ettan - Södra)

Ettan - Södra returns with Trelleborg hosting Atvidabergs FF. Match starts October 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.