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Atvidabergs FF vs Trelleborg — Ettan - Södra 2019

Atvidabergs FF
Atvidabergs FF
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Trelleborg
Trelleborg
5/10/2026Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 6Kopparvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Atvidabergs FF18%
×Draw23%
Trelleborg60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atvidabergs FF
0.88
Trelleborg
1.83

Trelleborg creates 108% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 7 away

creates per match

Atvidabergs FF
1.19
Trelleborg
2.29

allows per match

Atvidabergs FF
1.37
Trelleborg
0.57

finishing

Atvidabergs FF+0.00on par
Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atvidabergs FF ↓

Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atvidabergs FF or draw
40%
Atvidabergs FF or Trelleborg
77%
Draw or Trelleborg
82%

Winning margin

Atvidabergs FF wins by 2+
6%
Trelleborg wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Atvidabergs FF 1+ goals
59%
Atvidabergs FF 2+ goals
22%
Atvidabergs FF 3+ goals
6%
Trelleborg 1+ goals
84%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
54%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Atvidabergs FF (draw refunded)
23%
Trelleborg (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atvidabergs FF at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atvidabergs FF attack 1.19 + Trelleborg defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.88

Trelleborg attack 2.29 + Atvidabergs FF defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Atvidabergs FF scores more
18%
level
23%
Trelleborg scores more
60%

Trelleborg at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Södra: Atvidabergs FF 1–2 Trelleborg

Trelleborg beat Atvidabergs FF 2-1 in Ettan - Södra on May 10, 2026.

The match was played at Kopparvallen in Atvidaberg.