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Trelleborg vs Angelholms FF — Ettan - Södra 2019

Trelleborg
Trelleborg
Preview
11:00
Angelholms FF
Angelholms FF
9/27/2026Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 24
59%
Trelleborg
model favours
59%21%20%

Trelleborg score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Trelleborg59%
×Draw21%
Angelholms FF20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trelleborg
2.10
Angelholms FF
1.15

Trelleborg creates 83% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 70 away

creates per match

Trelleborg
2.43
Angelholms FF
1.16

allows per match

Trelleborg
1.14
Angelholms FF
1.76

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par
Angelholms FF+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

Angelholms FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw
80%
Trelleborg or Angelholms FF
79%
Draw or Angelholms FF
41%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+
36%
Angelholms FF wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals
88%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
62%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
35%
Angelholms FF 1+ goals
68%
Angelholms FF 2+ goals
32%
Angelholms FF 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)
74%
Angelholms FF (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Angelholms FF away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.76 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 2.43 + Angelholms FF defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.10

Angelholms FF attack 1.16 + Trelleborg defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Trelleborg scores more
59%
level
21%
Angelholms FF scores more
20%

Trelleborg at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 68% of Angelholms FF’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Trelleborg sit 1, Angelholms FF 11 in the table
  • 33% of Angelholms FF’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Trelleborg
DWWLW
FF
DWLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Trelleborg vs Angelholms FF — Match Preview

Trelleborg face Angelholms FF on September 27, 2026 in this Ettan - Södra fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.