Angelholms FF 1–5 Trelleborg: Result & Stats

Angelholms FF

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Trelleborg

4/3/2026

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Angelholms FF19%

×Draw23%

Trelleborg58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Angelholms FFExpected goals in this matchTrelleborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.84

Angelholms FF

0.96

Trelleborg

1.84

Trelleborg creates 92% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 7 away

1.34

creates per match

2.29

1.39

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Angelholms FF

1.34

Trelleborg

2.29

allows per match

Angelholms FF

1.39

Trelleborg

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Angelholms FF+0.00on par

Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angelholms FF ↓

Trelleborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Angelholms FF or draw

42%

Angelholms FF or Trelleborg

77%

Draw or Trelleborg

81%

Winning margin

Angelholms FF wins by 2+

7%

Trelleborg wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Angelholms FF 1+ goals

62%

Angelholms FF 2+ goals

25%

Angelholms FF 3+ goals

7%

Trelleborg 1+ goals

84%

Trelleborg 2+ goals

55%

Trelleborg 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Angelholms FF (draw refunded)

25%

Trelleborg (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angelholms FF at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.39 · 70 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angelholms FF attack 1.34 + Trelleborg defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.96

Trelleborg attack 2.29 + Angelholms FF defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Angelholms FF scores more

19%

level

23%

Trelleborg scores more

58%

Trelleborg at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff