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Trélissac vs Stade Brestois 29 — Coupe de France 2018

Trélissac
Trélissac
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29advanced
B. Bisson 75'
M. Satriano 88'
K. Lala 78' (pen)
1/20/2024Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 32Stade Firmin-Daudou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Trélissac28%
×Draw23%
Stade Brestois 2949%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trélissac
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.77

Stade Brestois 29 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Trélissac
1.33
Stade Brestois 29
1.88

allows per match

Trélissac
1.67
Stade Brestois 29
1.25

finishing

Trélissac+0.00on par
Stade Brestois 29+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trélissac ↓

Stade Brestois 29 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Trélissac or draw
51%
Trélissac or Stade Brestois 29
77%
Draw or Stade Brestois 29
72%

Winning margin

Trélissac wins by 2+
12%
Stade Brestois 29 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Trélissac 1+ goals
72%
Trélissac 2+ goals
37%
Trélissac 3+ goals
14%
Stade Brestois 29 1+ goals
83%
Stade Brestois 29 2+ goals
53%
Stade Brestois 29 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Trélissac (draw refunded)
37%
Stade Brestois 29 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trélissac at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Stade Brestois 29 away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trélissac attack 1.33 + Stade Brestois 29 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.88 + Trélissac defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Trélissac scores more
28%
level
23%
Stade Brestois 29 scores more
49%

Stade Brestois 29 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Stade Brestois 29 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
K. LalaStade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29 · D
8.9

Match Events

46'
B. Chardonnet← J. Le Cardinal
68'
M. Camara← B. Brahimi
69'
R. Del Castillo← J. Martin
71'
Jorris Romil
75'
J. Grain← D. Samba
75'
B. Bisson↳ J. Grain
76'
S. Mounié← J. Le Douaron
76'
H. Magnetti← Mathias Pereira Lage
78'
K. LalaPenalty
85'
N. Nana Gassa Gonga← A. Diakité
87'
Mahdi Camara
88'
M. Satriano↳ S. Mounié
90+1'
Pierre Lees Melou

Possession

39%Trélissac

Shots

10Trélissac

Pass accuracy

45%Trélissac

Statistics

TrélissacStade
Overview
39%Possession61%
10Total Shots16
4Corners6
12Fouls16
Shots
10Total Shots16
3On Target10
4Off Target4
3Blocked2
7Inside Box6
3Outside Box10
Passing
39%Possession61%
301Total Passes456
199Accurate Passes375
66%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
8Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls16
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Trélissac vs Stade Brestois 29

Stade Brestois 29 beat Trélissac 2-1 in Coupe de France on January 20, 2024.

Goals: B. Bisson (75'), K. Lala (78' pen), M. Satriano (88').

Stade Brestois 29 controlled possession (61%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade Firmin-Daudou in Trélissac.