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Trélissac vs PAU — Coupe de France 2018

Trélissac
Trélissac
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
PAU
PAU
C. Fall 69', 6'
11/15/2025Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 1/128-finalsStade Firmin Daudou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Trélissac26%
×Draw24%
PAU50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trélissac
1.17
PAU
1.72

PAU creates 47% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

creates per match

Trélissac
1.33
PAU
1.77

allows per match

Trélissac
1.67
PAU
1.00

finishing

Trélissac+0.00on par
PAU+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trélissac ↓

PAU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Trélissac or draw
50%
Trélissac or PAU
76%
Draw or PAU
74%

Winning margin

Trélissac wins by 2+
10%
PAU wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Trélissac 1+ goals
69%
Trélissac 2+ goals
33%
Trélissac 3+ goals
11%
PAU 1+ goals
82%
PAU 2+ goals
51%
PAU 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Trélissac (draw refunded)
34%
PAU (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trélissac at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

PAU away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trélissac attack 1.33 + PAU defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

PAU attack 1.77 + Trélissac defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Trélissac scores more
26%
level
24%
PAU scores more
50%

PAU at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "PAU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
C. Fall
69'
C. Fall
Trélissac
PAU
V. Dumont
Manager: V. Dumont
Nicolas Usaï
Manager: Nicolas Usaï

Coupe de France: Trélissac 0–2 PAU

PAU beat Trélissac 2-0 in Coupe de France on November 15, 2025.

Goals: C. Fall (6', 69').

The match was played at Stade Firmin Daudou.