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Trélissac vs Marseille — Coupe de France 2018

Trélissac
Trélissac
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Marseille
Marseille
1/5/2020Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 32nd FinalsStade de Beaublanc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Trélissac17%
×Draw20%
Marseille63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trélissac
1.07
Marseille
2.20

Marseille creates 106% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Trélissac
1.33
Marseille
2.73

allows per match

Trélissac
1.67
Marseille
0.82

finishing

Trélissac+0.00on par
Marseille+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trélissac ↓

Marseille →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Trélissac or draw
37%
Trélissac or Marseille
80%
Draw or Marseille
83%

Winning margin

Trélissac wins by 2+
6%
Marseille wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Trélissac 1+ goals
66%
Trélissac 2+ goals
29%
Trélissac 3+ goals
9%
Marseille 1+ goals
89%
Marseille 2+ goals
64%
Marseille 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Trélissac (draw refunded)
22%
Marseille (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trélissac at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Marseille away — creates 2.73, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trélissac attack 1.33 + Marseille defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.07

Marseille attack 2.73 + Trélissac defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Trélissac scores more
17%
level
20%
Marseille scores more
63%

Marseille at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Marseille will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trélissac vs Marseille

Trélissac and Marseille drew 1-1 in Coupe de France on January 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stade de Beaublanc in Limoges.