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Treibach vs Maria Saal — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Treibach
Treibach
FT
2 – 0
Maria Saal
Maria Saal
10/30/2020Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 14Turnerwald-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Treibach69%
×Draw17%
Maria Saal15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Treibach
2.68
Maria Saal
1.17

Treibach creates 129% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 49 away

creates per match

Treibach
2.84
Maria Saal
1.43

allows per match

Treibach
0.90
Maria Saal
2.53

finishing

Treibach+0.00on par
Maria Saal+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treibach ↓

Maria Saal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Treibach or draw
85%
Treibach or Maria Saal
83%
Draw or Maria Saal
31%

Winning margin

Treibach wins by 2+
48%
Maria Saal wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Treibach 1+ goals
93%
Treibach 2+ goals
74%
Treibach 3+ goals
49%
Maria Saal 1+ goals
69%
Maria Saal 2+ goals
33%
Maria Saal 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Treibach (draw refunded)
82%
Maria Saal (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treibach at home — creates 2.84, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Maria Saal away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.53 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treibach attack 2.84 + Maria Saal defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.68

Maria Saal attack 1.43 + Treibach defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Treibach scores more
69%
level
17%
Maria Saal scores more
15%

Treibach at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Treibach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: Treibach 2–0 Maria Saal

Treibach beat Maria Saal 2-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on October 30, 2020.

The match was played at Turnerwald-Stadion in Althofen.