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Treibach vs Feldkirchen Kärnten — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Treibach
Treibach
FT
2 – 0
Feldkirchen Kärnten
Feldkirchen Kärnten
9/27/2019Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 10Turnerwald-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Treibach66%
×Draw19%
Feldkirchen Kärnten16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Treibach
2.33
Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.05

Treibach creates 122% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 47 away

creates per match

Treibach
2.84
Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.21

allows per match

Treibach
0.90
Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.81

finishing

Treibach+0.00on par
Feldkirchen Kärnten+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treibach ↓

Feldkirchen Kärnten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Treibach or draw
84%
Treibach or Feldkirchen Kärnten
81%
Draw or Feldkirchen Kärnten
34%

Winning margin

Treibach wins by 2+
43%
Feldkirchen Kärnten wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Treibach 1+ goals
90%
Treibach 2+ goals
67%
Treibach 3+ goals
41%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 1+ goals
65%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 2+ goals
28%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Treibach (draw refunded)
81%
Feldkirchen Kärnten (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treibach at home — creates 2.84, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Feldkirchen Kärnten away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treibach attack 2.84 + Feldkirchen Kärnten defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.33

Feldkirchen Kärnten attack 1.21 + Treibach defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Treibach scores more
66%
level
19%
Feldkirchen Kärnten scores more
16%

Treibach at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Treibach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Treibach vs Feldkirchen Kärnten

Treibach beat Feldkirchen Kärnten 2-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on September 27, 2019.

The match was played at Turnerwald-Stadion in Althofen.