Treibach 0–1 Bad Gleichenberg: Result & Stats

Treibach

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bad Gleichenberg

7/30/2021

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 2Turnerwald-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Treibach40%

×Draw22%

Bad Gleichenberg38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TreibachExpected goals in this matchBad Gleichenberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.79

Treibach

1.83

Bad Gleichenberg

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 75 away

1.62

creates per match

1.75

1.84

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Treibach

1.62

Bad Gleichenberg

1.75

allows per match

Treibach

1.84

Bad Gleichenberg

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Treibach+0.00on par

Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treibach ↓

Bad Gleichenberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Treibach or draw

62%

Treibach or Bad Gleichenberg

78%

Draw or Bad Gleichenberg

60%

Winning margin

Treibach wins by 2+

21%

Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Treibach 1+ goals

84%

Treibach 2+ goals

54%

Treibach 3+ goals

28%

Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals

83%

Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals

53%

Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Treibach (draw refunded)

51%

Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treibach at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.84 · 61 matches

Bad Gleichenberg away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.04 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treibach attack 1.62 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.83

Bad Gleichenberg attack 1.75 + Treibach defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Treibach scores more

40%

level

22%

Bad Gleichenberg scores more

38%

Treibach at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Treibach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff