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Treibach vs Austria Klagenfurt II — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Treibach
Treibach
FT
2 – 0
Austria Klagenfurt II
Austria Klagenfurt II
3/22/2024Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 17Turnerwald-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Treibach61%
×Draw20%
Austria Klagenfurt II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Treibach
2.17
Austria Klagenfurt II
1.14

Treibach creates 90% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 60 away

creates per match

Treibach
2.84
Austria Klagenfurt II
1.38

allows per match

Treibach
0.90
Austria Klagenfurt II
1.50

finishing

Treibach+0.00on par
Austria Klagenfurt II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treibach ↓

Austria Klagenfurt II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Treibach or draw
81%
Treibach or Austria Klagenfurt II
80%
Draw or Austria Klagenfurt II
39%

Winning margin

Treibach wins by 2+
38%
Austria Klagenfurt II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Treibach 1+ goals
89%
Treibach 2+ goals
64%
Treibach 3+ goals
36%
Austria Klagenfurt II 1+ goals
68%
Austria Klagenfurt II 2+ goals
32%
Austria Klagenfurt II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Treibach (draw refunded)
76%
Austria Klagenfurt II (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treibach at home — creates 2.84, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Austria Klagenfurt II away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treibach attack 2.84 + Austria Klagenfurt II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.17

Austria Klagenfurt II attack 1.38 + Treibach defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Treibach scores more
61%
level
20%
Austria Klagenfurt II scores more
19%

Treibach at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Treibach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Treibach vs Austria Klagenfurt II

Treibach beat Austria Klagenfurt II 2-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Turnerwald-Stadion in Althofen.