Treaty United 1–1 Shelbourne: Result & Stats

Treaty United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shelbourne

W. Armshaw 90+4'

M. O’Connor 68'

7/9/2021

First Division · Round 15Markets Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Treaty United28%

×Draw26%

Shelbourne46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Treaty UnitedExpected goals in this matchShelbourne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.50

Treaty United

1.10

Shelbourne

1.50

Shelbourne creates 36% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 25 away

1.36

creates per match

1.64

1.35

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Treaty United

1.36

Shelbourne

1.64

allows per match

Treaty United

1.35

Shelbourne

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Treaty United+0.00on par

Shelbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treaty United ↓

Shelbourne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Treaty United or draw

54%

Treaty United or Shelbourne

74%

Draw or Shelbourne

72%

Winning margin

Treaty United wins by 2+

11%

Shelbourne wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Treaty United 1+ goals

67%

Treaty United 2+ goals

30%

Treaty United 3+ goals

10%

Shelbourne 1+ goals

78%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

44%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Treaty United (draw refunded)

37%

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treaty United at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.35 · 98 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treaty United attack 1.36 + Shelbourne defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.10

Shelbourne attack 1.64 + Treaty United defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Treaty United scores more

28%

level

26%

Shelbourne scores more

46%

Shelbourne at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

M. Mckevitt← K. Hanlon

63'

M. Ludden

68'

M. O’Connor

72'

S. McSweeney← M. Keane

72'

W. Armshaw← E. McCarthy

83'

B. McManus← R. Brennan

87'

M. Walsh← C. McNamara

90+2'

D. Rooney

90+4'

W. Armshaw

Treaty

Shelbourne

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: T. Barrett

58'▲M. Mckevitt←▼K. Hanlon

72'▲S. McSweeney←▼M. Keane

72'▲W. Armshaw←▼E. McCarthy

87'▲M. Walsh←▼C. McNamara

Treaty United substitutes

MckevittMcSweeneyArmshawWalshFoleyMurphyCusackGeary

Manager: I. Morris

83'▲B. McManus←▼R. Brennan

Shelbourne substitutes

McManusCetinerNolanFernandesMcAuleyBradyO'ConnorBarkerKouogun

Match Recap: Treaty United vs Shelbourne

Treaty United and Shelbourne drew 1-1 in First Division on July 9, 2021.

Goals: M. O’Connor (68'), W. Armshaw (90+4').

The match was played at Markets Field in Limerick.

Treaty United vs Shelbourne — First Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Treaty United vs Shelbourne