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Treaty United vs Dundalk — FAI Cup 2026

Treaty United
Treaty United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dundalk
Dundalk
P. McEleney 104'
7/25/2021FAI CupFAI Cup · 1st RoundMarkets Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Treaty United38%
×Draw21%
Dundalk41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Treaty United
1.93
Dundalk
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Treaty United
2.57
Dundalk
2.43

allows per match

Treaty United
1.57
Dundalk
1.29

finishing

Treaty United+0.00on par
Dundalk+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treaty United ↓

Dundalk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Treaty United or draw
59%
Treaty United or Dundalk
79%
Draw or Dundalk
62%

Winning margin

Treaty United wins by 2+
20%
Dundalk wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Treaty United 1+ goals
85%
Treaty United 2+ goals
57%
Treaty United 3+ goals
30%
Dundalk 1+ goals
86%
Dundalk 2+ goals
59%
Dundalk 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Treaty United (draw refunded)
48%
Dundalk (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treaty United at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Dundalk away — creates 2.43, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treaty United attack 2.57 + Dundalk defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.93

Dundalk attack 2.43 + Treaty United defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Treaty United scores more
38%
level
21%
Dundalk scores more
41%

Dundalk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dundalk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

104'
P. McEleney
111'
A. O'Donnell

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Treaty United vs Dundalk

Dundalk beat Treaty United 1-0 in FAI Cup on July 25, 2021.

Goals: P. McEleney (104').

The match was played at Markets Field in Limerick.