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Treaty United vs Bray Wanderers — First Division 2019

Treaty United
Treaty United
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Bray Wanderers
Bray Wanderers
3/8/2024First DivisionFirst Division · Round 4Markets Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Treaty United39%
×Draw26%
Bray Wanderers35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Treaty United
1.38
Bray Wanderers
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 121 away

creates per match

Treaty United
1.35
Bray Wanderers
1.24

allows per match

Treaty United
1.35
Bray Wanderers
1.41

finishing

Treaty United+0.00on par
Bray Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treaty United ↓

Bray Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Treaty United or draw
65%
Treaty United or Bray Wanderers
74%
Draw or Bray Wanderers
61%

Winning margin

Treaty United wins by 2+
18%
Bray Wanderers wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Treaty United 1+ goals
75%
Treaty United 2+ goals
40%
Treaty United 3+ goals
16%
Bray Wanderers 1+ goals
72%
Bray Wanderers 2+ goals
37%
Bray Wanderers 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Treaty United (draw refunded)
53%
Bray Wanderers (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treaty United at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

Bray Wanderers away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.41 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treaty United attack 1.35 + Bray Wanderers defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bray Wanderers attack 1.24 + Treaty United defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Treaty United scores more
39%
level
26%
Bray Wanderers scores more
35%

Treaty United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Treaty United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Division: Treaty United 2–2 Bray Wanderers

Treaty United and Bray Wanderers drew 2-2 in First Division on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Markets Field in Limerick.