Bray Wanderers 2–2 Treaty United: Result & Stats

Bray Wanderers

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Treaty United

5/1/2026

First Division · Round 13Carlisle Grounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Bray Wanderers45%

×Draw25%

Treaty United30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bray WanderersExpected goals in this matchTreaty United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.21

Bray Wanderers

1.54

Treaty United

1.21

Bray Wanderers creates 27% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 99 away

1.70

creates per match

1.13

1.29

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Bray Wanderers

1.70

Treaty United

1.13

allows per match

Bray Wanderers

1.29

Treaty United

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bray Wanderers+0.00on par

Treaty United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bray Wanderers ↓

Treaty United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bray Wanderers or draw

70%

Bray Wanderers or Treaty United

75%

Draw or Treaty United

55%

Winning margin

Bray Wanderers wins by 2+

23%

Treaty United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bray Wanderers 1+ goals

79%

Bray Wanderers 2+ goals

45%

Bray Wanderers 3+ goals

20%

Treaty United 1+ goals

70%

Treaty United 2+ goals

34%

Treaty United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bray Wanderers (draw refunded)

60%

Treaty United (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bray Wanderers at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.29 · 123 matches

Treaty United away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bray Wanderers attack 1.70 + Treaty United defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.54

Treaty United attack 1.13 + Bray Wanderers defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bray Wanderers scores more

45%

level

25%

Treaty United scores more

30%

Bray Wanderers at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bray Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff