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Treaty United vs Athlone Town — First Division 2019

Treaty United
Treaty United
Preview
18:45
Athlone Town
Athlone Town
7/24/2026First DivisionFirst Division · Round 24Markets Field
Big match
47%
Treaty United
model favours
47%25%28%

Treaty United score first in only 15% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Treaty United47%
×Draw25%
Athlone Town28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Treaty United
1.62
Athlone Town
1.20

Treaty United creates 35% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 118 away

creates per match

Treaty United
1.35
Athlone Town
1.04

allows per match

Treaty United
1.35
Athlone Town
1.89

finishing

Treaty United+0.00on par
Athlone Town+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treaty United ↓

Athlone Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Treaty United or draw
72%
Treaty United or Athlone Town
75%
Draw or Athlone Town
53%

Winning margin

Treaty United wins by 2+
24%
Athlone Town wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Treaty United 1+ goals
80%
Treaty United 2+ goals
48%
Treaty United 3+ goals
22%
Athlone Town 1+ goals
70%
Athlone Town 2+ goals
34%
Athlone Town 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Treaty United (draw refunded)
62%
Athlone Town (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treaty United at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

Athlone Town away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.89 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treaty United attack 1.35 + Athlone Town defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.62

Athlone Town attack 1.04 + Treaty United defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Treaty United scores more
47%
level
25%
Athlone Town scores more
28%

Treaty United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Treaty United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Athlone Town score first in only 23% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 31% of Treaty United’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
United
LWWDL
Town
WWLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Treaty United face Athlone Town (First Division)

First Division returns with Treaty United hosting Athlone Town. Match starts July 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Treaty United host Athlone Town at Markets Field.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.