Treaty United 1–0 Athlone Town: Result & Stats

Treaty United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Athlone Town

Y. Mahdy 71'

4/25/2025

First Division · Round 12Markets Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Treaty United47%

×Draw25%

Athlone Town28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Treaty UnitedExpected goals in this matchAthlone Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.20

Treaty United

1.62

Athlone Town

1.20

Treaty United creates 35% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 118 away

1.35

creates per match

1.04

1.35

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Treaty United

1.35

Athlone Town

1.04

allows per match

Treaty United

1.35

Athlone Town

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Treaty United+0.00on par

Athlone Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treaty United ↓

Athlone Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Treaty United or draw

72%

Treaty United or Athlone Town

75%

Draw or Athlone Town

53%

Winning margin

Treaty United wins by 2+

24%

Athlone Town wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Treaty United 1+ goals

80%

Treaty United 2+ goals

48%

Treaty United 3+ goals

22%

Athlone Town 1+ goals

70%

Athlone Town 2+ goals

34%

Athlone Town 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Treaty United (draw refunded)

62%

Athlone Town (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treaty United at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

Athlone Town away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.89 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treaty United attack 1.35 + Athlone Town defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.62

Athlone Town attack 1.04 + Treaty United defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Treaty United scores more

47%

level

25%

Athlone Town scores more

28%

Treaty United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Treaty United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

18'

37'

46'

49'

58'

58'

59'

71'

82'

83'

87'

88'

T. Vrljicak← M. Byrne

88'

E. Sheeran← G. Tetteh

90+3'

D. Hand

90+4'

K. O'Connor

Treaty

Athlone

99

5

2

3

4

▼

McKenna

22

▼

Torre

15

▼

Feeney

19

Barlow

8

Connolly

16

▼

Wilson

24

▼

Tetteh

1

Chambers

20

O'Connor

31

▼

3

25

6

34

27

5

11

▼

Byrne

9

⚽

▼

Mahdy

58'▲L. Lynch←▼E. Martin

87'▲D. Tarmey←▼Y. Mahdy

88'▲T. Vrljicak←▼M. Byrne

Treaty United substitutes

13Williams2Boevi7Lynch10Dolya12Kozlowski17Owens18Wilson19Tarmey99Vrljicak

Manager: D. Byrne

46'▲A. Wixted←▼B. Torre

58'▲B. Hery←▼D. McKenna

82'▲A. Lennon←▼B. Feeney

83'▲N. Baba←▼J. Wilson

88'▲E. Sheeran←▼G. Tetteh

Athlone Town substitutes

13Trainor12Omorehiomwan14Baba17Wixted21Hery18Leal26Gilmore32LennonSheeran