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Treasure Coast Tritons vs The Villages — USL League Two 2018

Treasure Coast Tritons
Treasure Coast Tritons
CANC
20:00
The Villages
The Villages
7/15/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 56Club Med Sandpiper Bay Soccer Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Treasure Coast Tritons33%
×Draw25%
The Villages41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Treasure Coast Tritons
1.29
The Villages
1.46

The Villages creates 13% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 42 away

creates per match

Treasure Coast Tritons
1.80
The Villages
1.52

allows per match

Treasure Coast Tritons
1.40
The Villages
0.79

finishing

Treasure Coast Tritons+0.00on par
The Villages+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treasure Coast Tritons ↓

The Villages →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Treasure Coast Tritons or draw
59%
Treasure Coast Tritons or The Villages
75%
Draw or The Villages
67%

Winning margin

Treasure Coast Tritons wins by 2+
15%
The Villages wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Treasure Coast Tritons 1+ goals
72%
Treasure Coast Tritons 2+ goals
37%
Treasure Coast Tritons 3+ goals
14%
The Villages 1+ goals
77%
The Villages 2+ goals
43%
The Villages 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Treasure Coast Tritons (draw refunded)
45%
The Villages (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treasure Coast Tritons at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

The Villages away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.79 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treasure Coast Tritons attack 1.80 + The Villages defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.29

The Villages attack 1.52 + Treasure Coast Tritons defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Treasure Coast Tritons scores more
33%
level
25%
The Villages scores more
41%

The Villages at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "The Villages will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Treasure Coast Tritons host The Villages

July 15, 2020: Treasure Coast Tritons take on The Villages in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Treasure Coast Tritons host The Villages at Club Med Sandpiper Bay Soccer Field.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.