Treasure Coast Tritons 2–1 Sarasota Metropolis

Treasure Coast Tritons

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sarasota Metropolis

6/29/2019

USL League Two · Round 5South County Regional Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Treasure Coast Tritons55%

×Draw20%

Sarasota Metropolis24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Treasure Coast TritonsExpected goals in this matchSarasota Metropolis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.40

Treasure Coast Tritons

2.20

Sarasota Metropolis

1.40

Treasure Coast Tritons creates 57% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.80

creates per match

1.40

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Treasure Coast Tritons

1.80

Sarasota Metropolis

1.40

allows per match

Treasure Coast Tritons

1.40

Sarasota Metropolis

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Treasure Coast Tritons+0.00on par

Sarasota Metropolis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treasure Coast Tritons ↓

Sarasota Metropolis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Treasure Coast Tritons or draw

76%

Treasure Coast Tritons or Sarasota Metropolis

80%

Draw or Sarasota Metropolis

45%

Winning margin

Treasure Coast Tritons wins by 2+

34%

Sarasota Metropolis wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Treasure Coast Tritons 1+ goals

89%

Treasure Coast Tritons 2+ goals

64%

Treasure Coast Tritons 3+ goals

37%

Sarasota Metropolis 1+ goals

75%

Sarasota Metropolis 2+ goals

41%

Sarasota Metropolis 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Treasure Coast Tritons (draw refunded)

70%

Sarasota Metropolis (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treasure Coast Tritons at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Sarasota Metropolis away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treasure Coast Tritons attack 1.80 + Sarasota Metropolis defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.20

Sarasota Metropolis attack 1.40 + Treasure Coast Tritons defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Treasure Coast Tritons scores more

55%

level

20%

Sarasota Metropolis scores more

24%

Treasure Coast Tritons at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Treasure Coast Tritons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff