Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Treasure Coast Tritons vs Lakeland Tropics — USL League Two 2018

Treasure Coast Tritons
Treasure Coast Tritons
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lakeland Tropics
Lakeland Tropics
7/6/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 11South County Regional Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Treasure Coast Tritons55%
×Draw20%
Lakeland Tropics24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Treasure Coast Tritons
2.20
Lakeland Tropics
1.40

Treasure Coast Tritons creates 57% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Treasure Coast Tritons
1.80
Lakeland Tropics
1.40

allows per match

Treasure Coast Tritons
1.40
Lakeland Tropics
2.60

finishing

Treasure Coast Tritons+0.00on par
Lakeland Tropics+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treasure Coast Tritons ↓

Lakeland Tropics →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Treasure Coast Tritons or draw
76%
Treasure Coast Tritons or Lakeland Tropics
80%
Draw or Lakeland Tropics
45%

Winning margin

Treasure Coast Tritons wins by 2+
34%
Lakeland Tropics wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Treasure Coast Tritons 1+ goals
89%
Treasure Coast Tritons 2+ goals
64%
Treasure Coast Tritons 3+ goals
37%
Lakeland Tropics 1+ goals
75%
Lakeland Tropics 2+ goals
41%
Lakeland Tropics 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Treasure Coast Tritons (draw refunded)
70%
Lakeland Tropics (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treasure Coast Tritons at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Lakeland Tropics away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treasure Coast Tritons attack 1.80 + Lakeland Tropics defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.20

Lakeland Tropics attack 1.40 + Treasure Coast Tritons defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Treasure Coast Tritons scores more
55%
level
20%
Lakeland Tropics scores more
24%

Treasure Coast Tritons at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Treasure Coast Tritons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Treasure Coast Tritons 2–0 Lakeland Tropics

Treasure Coast Tritons beat Lakeland Tropics 2-0 in USL League Two on July 6, 2019.

The match was played at South County Regional Stadium.