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Treasure Coast Tritons vs Daytona — USL League Two 2018

Treasure Coast Tritons
Treasure Coast Tritons
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Daytona
Daytona
7/13/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 17South County Regional Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Treasure Coast Tritons36%
×Draw30%
Daytona34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Treasure Coast Tritons
1.06
Daytona
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Treasure Coast Tritons
1.80
Daytona
0.67

allows per match

Treasure Coast Tritons
1.40
Daytona
0.33

finishing

Treasure Coast Tritons+0.00on par
Daytona+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treasure Coast Tritons ↓

Daytona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Treasure Coast Tritons or draw
66%
Treasure Coast Tritons or Daytona
70%
Draw or Daytona
64%

Winning margin

Treasure Coast Tritons wins by 2+
14%
Daytona wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Treasure Coast Tritons 1+ goals
65%
Treasure Coast Tritons 2+ goals
29%
Treasure Coast Tritons 3+ goals
9%
Daytona 1+ goals
64%
Daytona 2+ goals
28%
Daytona 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Treasure Coast Tritons (draw refunded)
51%
Daytona (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treasure Coast Tritons at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Daytona away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treasure Coast Tritons attack 1.80 + Daytona defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Daytona attack 0.67 + Treasure Coast Tritons defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Treasure Coast Tritons scores more
36%
level
30%
Daytona scores more
34%

Treasure Coast Tritons at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Treasure Coast Tritons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Treasure Coast Tritons vs Daytona

Daytona beat Treasure Coast Tritons 1-0 in USL League Two on July 13, 2019.

The match was played at South County Regional Stadium.