Treasure Beach 2–4 Waterhouse: Result & Stats

Treasure Beach

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Waterhouse

3/20/2024

Premier League · Round 23St. Elizabeth Technical High School Soccer Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Treasure Beach22%

×Draw25%

Waterhouse53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Treasure BeachExpected goals in this matchWaterhouse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.57

Treasure Beach

0.92

Waterhouse

1.57

Waterhouse creates 71% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 99 away

0.97

creates per match

1.35

1.79

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Treasure Beach

0.97

Waterhouse

1.35

allows per match

Treasure Beach

1.79

Waterhouse

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Treasure Beach+0.00on par

Waterhouse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treasure Beach ↓

Waterhouse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Treasure Beach or draw

47%

Treasure Beach or Waterhouse

75%

Draw or Waterhouse

78%

Winning margin

Treasure Beach wins by 2+

7%

Waterhouse wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Treasure Beach 1+ goals

60%

Treasure Beach 2+ goals

23%

Treasure Beach 3+ goals

7%

Waterhouse 1+ goals

79%

Waterhouse 2+ goals

46%

Waterhouse 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Treasure Beach (draw refunded)

30%

Waterhouse (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treasure Beach at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

Waterhouse away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.87 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treasure Beach attack 0.97 + Waterhouse defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.92

Waterhouse attack 1.35 + Treasure Beach defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Treasure Beach scores more

22%

level

25%

Waterhouse scores more

53%

Waterhouse at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Waterhouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff